Ukraine Says It Is Ready for Arrival of Wagner Troops in Belarus

KYIV, Ukraine — As Belarus has ratcheted up its rhetoric about plans to offer refuge — and possibly work — to Wagner group mercenaries after a failed rebellion in Russia, Ukrainian forces say they are ready for any potential threat from their neighbor to the north.

In recent days, Ukrainian officials have tried to tamp down concerns while heralding their preparations, with President Volodymyr Zelensky nodding to plans for reinforcing the border in his overnight address into Saturday and top commanders emphasizing that no current threat had been found.

Mr. Zelensky indicated that Ukrainian intelligence was monitoring the situation closely, adding, “we very carefully analyze every fact and any prospects in all directions.” Ukraine’s top generals were “instructed to strengthen the northern direction — to guarantee peace,” he said.

This week, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the Kremlin-aligned autocratic leader of Belarus, invited members of the Wagner group who had participated in a rebellion against Russian forces to relocate to an “abandoned” military base in his country. New satellite imagery from Thursday and Friday, analyzed by The New York Times, shows that more than 250 tents, enough to house thousands of troops, have been erected in the past five days at an unused base.

The invitation has made many in Ukraine once more wary of their northern neighbor and drawn condemnation and warnings from NATO leaders about the potential threat on their doorstep from a group that has earned a reputation for ruthless violence.

Belarus was a key staging point in the months leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the northern border was major point of incursion before some Russian forces withdrew across it months later.

Russia continues to use Belarus as a training ground for its forces and to launch airstrikes on Ukraine. But there are no Russian offensive units in Belarus and there has been little indication that Mr. Lukashenko would deploy Belarusian troops to Ukraine.

Lt. Gen. Serhiy Nayev, the commander of Ukraine’s joint forces, said in a Friday post on Telegram that there was currently no direct threat of an offensive operation of ground forces from Belarus.

“However, if the level of threat rises, the buildup of forces and means, as well as other practical measures to boost the group’s defensive capabilities, are foreseen,” he said.

Mr. Lukashenko, in an address commemorating Belarus’s Independence Day on Friday and published by the state news agency Belta, said that he was open to the idea of Wagner mercenaries training Belarusian troops, but said that they had not yet arrived in the country.

“And if their instructors, as I already told them, come and pass on combat experience to us, we will accept this experience,” he said.

Earlier this week, Mr. Lukashenko said that Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner group, had arrived in Belarus after the failed rebellion against Russian forces. But Mr. Prigozhin has not been heard from publicly in a week and his whereabouts have not been independently confirmed.

Valerie Hopkins contributed reporting.

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